CALL FOR APPLICATIONS: Spatial Prioritization and Assisted Revegetation Scenario Modelling Consultancy

TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)

Title: Spatial Prioritization and Assisted Revegetation Scenario Modelling Consultancy

Entity & Project Name: Palladium International LLC; Growth Poles Project 2.0

Location: Lilongwe River Catchment, Lilongwe, Malawi

Type of engagement: Individual consultant, firm, or team

Estimated Duration: Up to 13 weeks, with an estimated level of effort of approximately 40 person-days

Provisional Start Date: Within two weeks of award of bid; Provisional start date on or around 20 September 2026

Reporting to: Growth Poles Project 2.0 technical team and designated Palladium management lead

Deadline to Apply: 30 August 2026

How to Apply:

1. Download the application templates on using:
   a. Application Template NbS Consultancy
   b. GPP2_Financial_Proposal_Budget_Template
2. Submit email proposals to ProcurementGPMW@thepalladiumgroup.com with subject line “Proposal – Spatial Prioritization and Scenario Modeling”

Proposal Requirements: Interested individuals, firms, or teams should submit a brief technical proposal, a financial proposal, and evidence of relevant experience in spatial prioritization, hydrological or ecosystem service modelling, natural resource management, or related assignments.

Required Qualifications and Experience: see “Required Qualifications and Experience” below

Proposal Requirements:  Interested individuals and/or firms should submit:

• Technical proposal using template Accessible using: Application Template NbS Consultancy)
• Financial proposal using template Accessible using: (GPP2_Financial_Proposal_Budget_Template)
• One example of a previous spatial analysis and scenario modeling produced by the applicant

1.   Company Overview

Palladium is a global leader in the design, development and delivery of Positive Impact – the intentional creation of enduring social and economic value. We work with governments, businesses, and investors to solve the world’s most pressing challenges. With a global team and network of experts, we help improve economies, societies and, most importantly, people’s lives.

2.   Project Overview

The Growth Poles Project 2.0 (GPP 2.0) is a five-year initiative (Oct 2023–Sept 2028) led by Palladium International and funded by Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs. It aims to accelerate inclusive, sustainable, and resilient wealth creation in Malawi by mobilizing private sector investments in agriculture and natural resource management. Its development objective is to advance a more inclusive, diversified, and resilient private sector that drives sustainable wealth creation while enhancing environmental and ecological diversity.

The Lilongwe Water Board (LWB), in partnership with Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR), is developing and implementing the Lilongwe River Catchment Management Strategy from 2026. As part of the Growth Poles Project 2.0 (GPP 2.0), Palladium is interested in contracting a specialist in Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for water security to estimate the biophysical benefits of assisted revegetation interventions in the Lilongwe River watershed. This assignment will support the pre-feasibility phase by generating sufficient spatial and biophysical evidence to determine whether a full feasibility study and programme design is warranted.

3.   Background and Context

The Lilongwe River Catchment is central to Lilongwe City’s water security. The catchment supplies Kamuzu Dams I and II, the city’s primary raw water sources, but is increasingly affected by land degradation, deforestation, erosion, riverbank encroachment, and pollution. These pressures contribute to declining raw water quality, rising water treatment costs, and increased vulnerability to climate variability.

The consultancy will provide spatial prioritization and scenario modelling evidence to help Palladium, LWB, LUANAR, and other partners identify where assisted revegetation and tree planting interventions may generate the strongest potential water security benefits. The outputs will help guide subsequent implementation planning, stakeholder engagement, and decisions on whether to proceed toward a more detailed feasibility study and programme design.

4.   Purpose of the Assignment

The purpose of this assignment is to engage a qualified consultant, firm, or team to conduct spatial prioritization and assisted revegetation scenario modelling for the Lilongwe River watershed. The assignment will specifically aim to:

1. Characterize the biophysical conditions of the Lilongwe River watershed relevant to revegetation and water security objectives.
2. Identify and prioritize areas suitable for assisted revegetation / tree planting interventions within operationally feasible implementation zones.
3. Apply the Resource Investment Optimization System (RIOS) framework to prioritize revegetation opportunities based on agreed water security objectives.
4. Develop and run ecosystem service modelling scenarios using the InVEST modelling suite to estimate potential biophysical benefits associated with revegetation interventions.
5. Classify planning units according to their relative biophysical suitability and expected contribution to water security objectives.
6. Identify key data limitations and provide recommendations for future refinement of analyses and implementation planning.

5.   Scope of Work

The consultancy will focus on a targeted spatial prioritization and ecosystem service modelling exercise to support assisted revegetation (tree planting) interventions within the Lilongwe River watershed. The work will focus on identifying areas where revegetation activities may provide the highest potential biophysical benefits according to agreed water security objectives.

The work will primarily rely on desktop geospatial analysis using existing spatial datasets and modelling tools, including the Resource Investment Optimization System (RIOS) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) ecosystem service modelling suite.

Palladium will provide the consultant with available operational information relevant to implementation planning, including:

• Locations of nurseries or operational centers
• Planning polygons or implementation units (e.g., parcels, farms, or equivalent units)
• Existing spatial datasets and operational constraints where available.

The consultant will not conduct field-level social engagement activities, negotiate with landowners, or define final implementation plans. The outputs of the consultancy are intended to support Palladium’s subsequent implementation planning and stakeholder engagement processes.

5.1.           Description of activities

1. Data acquisition and coordination support

Palladium will support the consultant in the collection, acquisition, and provision of available datasets and operational information required for the analyses. This may include existing spatial datasets, nursery locations, planning-unit boundaries (e.g., parcels or farms), relevant project documentation, and coordination with local stakeholders where necessary to facilitate access to available information. The consultant will primarily rely on existing secondary information and datasets provided or facilitated by Palladium and project partners. Where critical information gaps are identified, Palladium will support coordination efforts to facilitate access to additional available data sources when feasible.

a. Delineate the watershed and sub-watersheds of the Lilongwe River using available Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data.

b. Compile and assess available spatial and tabular datasets, including:

1. 1. Climate information
   2. Land use and land cover
   3. Soils and topography
   4. Hydrology and drainage networks
   5. Vegetation cover and degradation patterns

c. Characterize the principal water security challenges and relevant hydrological processes associated with the watershed.

d. Identify and characterize the operational area of influence for revegetation interventions, including preferred implementation zones located within approximately 5 km of identified nurseries or operational centers.

e. Identify land use and land cover types that may be considered suitable for assisted revegetation according to agreed land transformation rules developed jointly with Palladium and the advisory team.

2. NbS prioritization and ecosystem service modelling

a. Apply the Resource Investment Optimization System (RIOS) framework to identify areas where revegetation interventions (tree planting) may provide the highest potential hydrological return according to agreed objectives.

b. Prioritization objectives may include:

1. 1. Sediment retention
   2. Baseflow regulation
   3. Erosion control
   4. Nutrient retention
   5. Water yield enhancement

c. Aggregate prioritization outputs to the planning-unit scale defined by Palladium (e.g., parcels, farms, or equivalent operational units) and classify implementation units according to relative biophysical suitability categories.

d. Define a maximum of three intervention scenarios jointly with Palladium and the advisory team. Scenarios may include variations in intervention area, implementation intensity, or prioritization preference categories.

e. Develop revegetation scenarios based on agreed land transformation rules and target intervention areas.

f. Apply the InVEST modelling suite to estimate potential biophysical benefits associated with revegetation interventions. The modelling package should include, at minimum:

1. Annual Water Yield
2. Seasonal Water Yield
3. Sediment Delivery Ratio
4. Nutrient Delivery Ratio

g. Estimate changes in relevant ecosystem service indicators relative to the current state.

h. Identify key data limitations and assumptions affecting modelling confidence and provide recommendations for future refinement of analyses.

6.   Contractor deliverables

The expected duration of the analysis is up to 13 weeks, with an expected dedication of around 40 person-days. All deliverables must be completed by the final delivery date agreed at contract signature, which should allow Palladium and partners to use the prioritization outputs to guide upcoming assisted revegetation and tree planting planning. Table 1 presents a summary of the project deliverables and approximate timelines for delivery.

Table 1. Contractor deliverables and estimated timeline (exact dates to be agreed at contract signature)..

7.   Application requirements

Applications are open to qualified individual consultants, firms, or teams with the required technical expertise. The opportunity is not restricted to Malawian citizens unless otherwise stated in the solicitation package. Applicants based outside Malawi must be able to comply with all applicable contracting, tax, and payment documentation requirements. Where a Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) is requested, applicants should provide it if applicable or indicate an equivalent tax registration reference from their country of registration.

To support a consistent, transparent, and efficient review process, Palladium will provide applicants with standard application and budget templates. Applicants will be required to use these templates when submitting their technical and financial proposals.

The templates will ensure that submissions are presented in a comparable format and include the required level of detail, including methodology, relevant experience, workplan, staffing approach, estimated person-days by task or component, deliverables, assumptions, and budget breakdown. Applicants should indicate whether the assignment will be delivered by an individual consultant or by a team, and should clearly identify the proposed Point of Contact (POC) and any supporting technical personnel. This will allow the review panel to assess applications consistently against technical quality, feasibility, value for money, and alignment with the scope of work.

Applicants should provide a financial proposal showing either estimated costs by component or estimated person-days by task, supported by any necessary assumptions. The solicitation package may include a budget ceiling or maximum available budget where applicable to help applicants assess feasibility and value for money. As the assignment is expected to be primarily desktop-based, travel is not anticipated unless explicitly requested by Palladium. If applicants consider travel necessary, they should clearly justify the purpose, location, duration, and estimated cost for review and approval.

8.   Required qualifications and experience

8.1.    Minimum qualifications

• Master’s degree in water resources, ecology, hydrology, civil or environmental engineering, environmental science, geography, or a related field and 3 years of professional experience or equivalent combination
• Experience in geo-spatial analysis, hydrological modelling, and remote sensing /earth observation
• Experience synthesizing, interpreting, and communicating scientific information
• Experienced in project management planning and techniques, including elaborating clear workplans and managing deadlines
• Modelling expertise in Resource Investment Optimization System (RIOS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST)
• Fluent in English (written and spoken)

8.2.    Desired qualifications

• 5+ years of professional experience, preferably within water sector consultancies and/or water resource management
• Ecology expertise across a diversity of ecosystem environments
• Geo-spatial and remote sensing analysis expertise (Desktop and cloud-based), including ArcGIS, QGIS, Google Earth Engine
• Hydrological modelling expertise, such as SWAT, WEAP, HEC-HMS, MODFLOW
• Professional experience in NbS project design and implementation
• Ability to communicate complex scientific concepts and outputs to non-technical audiences

Post expires at 11:59pm on Sunday August 30th, 2026