Consultancy Opportunity – Terms of Reference: Baseline for the Greening and Growing Malawi (Ulimi ndi Chilengedwe m’Malawi-UCHI) Project in Mlolo, Nsanje District

CONSULTANCY OPPORTUNITY

Terms of Reference: Baseline for the Greening and Growing Malawi (Ulimi ndi Chilengedwe m’Malawi-UCHI) Project in Mlolo, Nsanje District

1. Introduction and Background

The Greening and Growing Malawi: (Ulimi ndi Chilengedwe m ’Malawi- UCHI) project in Traditional Authority (TA) Mlolo within Nsanje District is a flagship initiative under the UCHI project, funded through the European Union (EU) framework for climate resilience and environmental sustainability implemented by Nsanje District Council in partnership with Concern Worldwide. Nsanje District, located in Malawi’s Lower Shire Valley, is highly vulnerable to climate-induced shocks, including recurrent flooding, prolonged drought periods, and escalating land degradation. These environmental challenges have exacerbated food insecurity, reduced household incomes, and undermined community resilience.

The UCHI – project was designed to address these intersecting challenges by restoring degraded ecosystems, improving soil and water management, and creating alternative livelihoods. The project also contributes directly to Malawi 2063, the National Forestry Policy, and the National Climate Change Management Policy, positioning itself as a catalyst for integrated landscape management and climate adaptation. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approaches applied in this project provide an evidence-based pathway for disaster risk reduction and long-term socio-economic resilience for the most vulnerable communities.

This assessment represents a critical step in ensuring accountability, learning, and evidence generation. The findings will inform adaptive programming, policy alignment, and donor reporting, particularly under the EU Results-Oriented Monitoring (ROM) framework. The insights derived will also shape future investment decisions and help scale successful interventions across other flood-prone areas in the Shire Valley.

2. Purpose and Objectives

The primary purpose of this assessment is to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the afforestation interventions implemented in TA Mlolo under the UCHI initiative. The evaluation aims to generate evidence on project performance, identify successes and gaps, and propose actionable recommendations to enhance future programming. Specific objectives include:

• Ecological Performance: Assess changes in forest cover, vegetation density, soil stabilization, and biodiversity recovery. This includes quantifying the survival rate of planted species and their ecological contributions to watershed health and micro-climate regulation.
• Socio-economic Impacts: Analyze how the interventions have supported household income diversification, food security, and reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts. The analysis will also explore value-chain opportunities derived from forest products such as fruit, honey, and sustainable fuelwood.
• Governance and Institutional Strengthening: The consultant is expected to critically assess the role, functionality, and effectiveness of community governance structures—particularly Village Natural Resources Management Committees (VNRMCs), Area Development Committees (ADCs), and other stakeholders—in sustaining afforestation initiatives. The analysis should examine their mandates, capacities, and coordination mechanisms in planning, implementing, and monitoring activities, as well as the strength of institutional linkages with district authorities and other actors to ensure long-term sustainability. Attention should be given to decision-making, accountability, and inclusiveness, including women, youth, and marginalized groups. The assessment should also identify institutional challenges and recommend strategies to strengthen frameworks and community ownership.
• Learning and Knowledge Management: Document best practices, innovations, and lessons learned, with a focus on scalable models and policy integration opportunities that align with national climate resilience frameworks and donor priorities.

3. Scope of Work

The scope of the assessment will encompass the geographic area of TA Mlolo in Nsanje District, covering all sites where afforestation activities have been implemented under the UCHI initiative. Thematic coverage will include:

• Ecological Integrity: Evaluation of forest cover dynamics, soil health improvement, biodiversity indices, and ecosystem functionality.
• Livelihood Enhancement: Assessment of how afforestation interventions have improved income opportunities, reduced household dependency on unsustainable natural resource exploitation, and promoted alternative livelihoods.
• Governance Systems: Analysis of institutional structures, policy coherence, and stakeholder coordination mechanisms that support the sustainability of afforestation efforts.
• Climate Resilience: Examination of how afforestation interventions contribute to disaster risk reduction, flood management, and adaptive capacity building within communities.

The assessment will be guided by the OECD-DAC evaluation criteria and will address the following key questions:

• Relevance: To what extent are the afforestation interventions aligned with community needs, district development plans, and national policy frameworks? How well do the interventions address the key drivers of deforestation and land degradation?
• Effectiveness: What progress has been made in achieving ecological and socio-economic targets? What factors have contributed to or hindered the attainment of intended results?
• Efficiency: Were financial, human, and material resources deployed cost-effectively to maximize outputs and outcomes? Were there any implementation bottlenecks, and how were they addressed?
• Impact: What measurable changes in forest cover, biodiversity, and household resilience have been observed as a result of the interventions? How have these changes influenced community well-being and adaptive capacity?
• Sustainability: Are the institutional, financial, and technical mechanisms in place to sustain project gains beyond the life of the project? What risks could undermine sustainability, and how can these be mitigated?
• Crosscutting: Gender and social inclusion: To what extent have women, youth, and vulnerable groups participated and benefited from the interventions?
• Safeguarding and accountability: How functional and responsive are the feedback and complaint mechanisms in promoting accountability and inclusiveness?

Key performance indicators for the assessment include:

1. Percentage increase in forest cover relative to baseline data.
2. Tree survival rates and growth performance across sites.
3. Biodiversity indices (species richness and evenness).
4. Number and percentage of households reporting increased income or improved resilience.
5. Functionality scores for governance structures (VNRMCs, ADCs and Community Natural Resource Committees).
6. Degree of integration of afforestation objectives into district and national development plans.

The assessment will uphold the highest ethical standards, including but not limited to: obtaining informed consent from all participants; ensuring confidentiality and secure handling of data; epplying safeguarding measures for children, women, and vulnerable groups; and establishing clear protocols for reporting and addressing safeguarding concerns.

4. Methodology

The assessment will adhere to ethical standards and will adopt a robust mixed-methods approach to ensure triangulation of data and enhance the credibility of findings. Key components of the methodology will include:

1. Quantitative Data Collection: Household surveys targeting direct and indirect beneficiaries to quantify socio-economic impacts, adoption rates, and resilience indicators.
2. Qualitative Data Collection: Focus Group Discussions with various community groups including women, youth, and vulnerable households to gather insights into perceptions, attitudes and behavioral changes; Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with stakeholders such as District Forestry Officers, VNRMC leaders, NGO representatives, and private sector actors.
3. Ecological and Biophysical Assessments: Species inventories to evaluate biodiversity improvements; Tree survival rate assessments and soil quality tests to measure ecological health; Hydrological assessments to understand the role of afforestation in water retention and flood regulation.
4. Geospatial Analysis: Use of GIS and remote sensing tools (ArcGIS, QGIS) to quantify forest cover changes over time and spatial distribution of afforestation efforts.
5. Participatory Mapping: Engaging communities in mapping resources and land-use changes to integrate local knowledge into the assessment findings.
6. Document and Policy Reviews: Review of project documentation, policy frameworks, and scientific literature to contextualize findings within broader environmental and development frameworks.

The consultant is expected to outline clear strategies for anticipating, mitigating, and responding to potential risks. Specifically, the following:

• Weather-Related Disruptions – How will you integrate flexibility into your scheduling and work plan to account for potential weather-related delays?
• Stakeholder Availability – What approach will you use to secure stakeholder engagement early and align schedules to avoid conflicts?
• Security Risks – What risk assessment procedures and safety protocols will you apply to ensure the safety of all team members during fieldwork?
• Data Quality – How will you safeguard data quality to avoid inaccuracies, sampling or response biases
• Ethical Risks – What specific measures will you employ to ensure the privacy and confidentiality of respondent information?

5. Deliverables

The assessment will produce the following deliverables:

1. Inception Report: Extracts from the review of the project log frame, detailed methodology, refined assessment questions and finalized tools.
2. Validated Data Collection Instruments: Surveys, FGD guides, ecological assessment templates and Stakeholder engagement matrix detailing roles and responsibilities.
3. Draft Assessment Report: Comprehensive findings for stakeholder review.
4. Stakeholder Validation Workshop Report: Summary of key feedback and consensus points.
5. Final Assessment Report: A technically robust and donor-ready report incorporating stakeholder inputs and annexes.
6. Data Sets: Cleaned datasets, geospatial layers and analysis scripts for institutional use.

6. Work Plan and Timelines

The assignment shall be for a 45-day period, structured as follows:

• Weeks 1–2: Literature review, tool development, stakeholder consultations and an inception report with a detailed Gantt chart to visualize milestones and timelines.
• Weeks 3–4: Field data collection (household surveys, FGDs, KIIs and ecological assessments).
• Week 5: Data cleaning, analysis, and draft report preparation.
• Week 6: Stakeholder validation workshop and submission of final report.

7. Management and Coordination

The consultant will report administratively to the Nsanje District Council and technically to Concern Worldwide and the EU project management unit. Coordination mechanisms include:

• Weekly progress updates to Concern Worldwide.
• Bi-weekly virtual check-ins with the project management unit.
• Continuous engagement with community structures for strong collaboration and feedback loops.
• Concern’s Country Director will be responsible for signing off and approving the final products.

8. Team Composition and Qualifications

The assessment will require a multidisciplinary team with expertise in forestry, natural resource management, ecology, socioeconomics, governance and policy and GIS/Remote Sensing with prior experience in similar assignments and participatory research in Southern Africa. The team should be composed of:

1. Team Leader: Forestry and Natural Resource Management specialist with at least 10 years of relevant experience.
2. GIS/Remote Sensing Specialist: Expertise in spatial analysis for forest monitoring and planning.
3. Socio-Economist: Specialized in livelihoods and resilience assessments, with strong quantitative and qualitative research skills.
4. Governance and Policy Analyst: Skilled in institutional analysis and policy integration.
5. Research Assistants: Experienced in data collection, community engagement and ethical compliance.

9. Evaluation Criteria

Proposals will be evaluated using a weighted scoring system:

• Technical quality of the proposed methodology: 50%.
• Relevant qualifications and experience of the proposed team: 30%.
• Cost-effectiveness and clarity of the financial proposal: 20%.

10. Application Procedure

Interested bidders should submit the following requirements:

• A cover letter expressing interest and outlining qualifications and experience of similar work.
• A financial proposal in Malawi Kwacha valid for at least 60 days
• A technical proposal responding to the terms of reference and outlining:
  • The proposed methodology and work plan
  • A portfolio with at least three samples of recent similar work
  • Three professional referees including their full name and email and telephone contacts
  • Resumes of the Core Team: Specify the role of each core team member in this assignment, their qualifications & most recent & relevant experience
• Compliance requirements:
  • A copy of Company Registration Certificate (if bidding as a company/organisation)
  • A copy of National ID/Passport for individual bidders
  • A copy of MRA TPIN Certificate for all bidders
  • A copy of Tax Compliance Certificate for all bidders

Interested bidders should submit the application requirements outlined above to malawi.logs@concern.net with the subject of the email as CONMW/EU231/10000067 by Wednesday, 22^nd October 2025. Bids submitted after the deadline will not be accepted.  

Concern’s procurement policies are available at www.concern.net/about/supplies

Concern Worldwide reserves the right to accept or reject any bid and to annul the bidding process wholly or in part, at any time, without giving reasons for its decision.